摘要
提出了基于状态转移和蒙特卡洛模拟(M on te C arlo s im u lation,M CS)的配电系统可靠性评估算法。算法根据配电系统中断路器、分段开关、联络开关等可操作性元件的动态特性对系统建立彼此独立的状态转移链,并利用M CS法模拟元件故障事件发生状态转移,统计各元件及各状态的故障频率、故障发生时间和故障持续时间等参数,最后利用这些参数计算各负荷点的基本可靠性指标及其概率分布。文章通过对RBTS(re lia-b ility test system)算例的计算分析,验证了所提算法的有效性。并分析了TTR(tim e to repa ir)、TTS(tim e tosectiona lize)的概率分布以及熔断器的可靠度对可靠性指标的影响。
This paper presents a method for distribution system reliability evaluation based on state transition and Monte Carlo simulation. Firstly, several independent state transition chains of distribution system are constructed according to the dynamic characteristics of operable components such as breakers, disconnect switches and alternative supply switches. Then the state transition of failure element is simulated with MCS, so the failure rate, failure occurrence time and failure duration time of the faulted elements are counted. Thus,the basic reliability indices and their probability distribution of load points are calculated. The validity of the proposed method is proved by the simulation results of RBTS system.
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期96-102,共7页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
关键词
配电系统
蒙特卡洛仿真
状态转移
可靠性
power distribution system
Monte Carlo simulation（MCS）
state transition
reliability
