中国沿海地区国民收入预测的新组合模型

A NEW COMPOSITE MODEL FOR FORECASTING OF NATIONAL INCOME (NI) IN LITTORAL CHINA

着重讨论一种基于灰色GM(1,1)模型及国民收入决定函数模型而建立的新组合模型.该模型建模方法简单,组合性强,并且在汲取各模型的拟合精度提高.该模型汲取了灰色GM(1,1)模型模拟国民收入变化趋势的优点和国民收入决定函数模型模拟国民收入波动的优点,使组合模型不但在趋势上符合国民收入的发展,而且也给出了在波动方面的比较一致的模拟.

This paper presents a new composite model for the forecasting of national income(NI) in littoral China based on Grey-system model and the function model of national income. Grey-system model has a good characteristic about the developmental extension of national income, and function model of national'income has a good characteristic about fluctation of national econ-omy. This new composite model takes advantages of these two models. The results show that this new composite model is ef-fective in forecasting of in littoral China.