生物气象预报的生态动力学基础

Ecological-Dynamic Basis of Biometeorological Forecasting

生物气象预报同公用天气预报有着密切关联。根据国内外物候学、数值天气预报、模式识别自动化技术和生态动力学进展趋势,从生态动力学出发评述了生物气象预报进展、生物气象预报的理论和方法及生物气象预报所涉及范围与生态动力学的关系,指出高新技术化的生态动力学是生物气象预报从定性发展到定量、从单站发展到区域的预测网络的基础,就生物气象预报研究、业务化和人才培养等问题,提出了一些个人看法,并展望了发展前景及其在可持续发展、生态环境改善等方面的作用。

Biometeorolocical forecasting is closely related to public weather forecasting. The ecological-dynamic basis of biometeorological forecasting is described on the basis of operational practice, applied researches, the related references and experts＇ experiences. The advancements, theories and methods, and research scope of biometeorological forecasting, as well as the relation with ecological dynamics, are reviewed. It is pointed out that the introduction of high-new technology into ecological dynamics is the foundation for the development of biometeorological forecasting from qualitative to quantitative forecasting and from single station to regional network. Some suggestions on the operationization and specialist training for biometeorological forecasting are presented. Discussion is also made on the prospects of biometeorological forecasting and its importance for the sustainable development of the national economy and the ecological environment.