气象服务经济效益的一种客观计算方法

Objective Computational Method of Meteorological Service Economic Efficiency

介绍了一种将预报服务经验和数学统计相结合,客观计算预报服务经济效益的方法。该方法把用户依据预报服务采取对策后遭受的损失,比不依据预报服务遭受损失少的部分看作是预报服务的直接经济效益,并通过对用户调查研究和分析试验确定各种天气防范指标,应用统计分析方法建立对应天气强度防范指标下损失比的计算模型。该计算方法理论根据明确,计算步骤简单,计算结果误差较小,用户普遍能够予以认可和接受。经过近3来实际应用,效果较好。

A method with forecast service experiences and mathematical-statlstic computation combined is introduced, which can be used to calculate objectively forecast service economic efficiency. The reduced part of the loss after taking countermeasures according to forecast service is considered as the direct economic efficiency of the forecast service. The indexes of various weather risks are determined through user investigation and analytical experiments, and the corresponding computation models are established by means of the statistical method. The method has advantages of being simple, less errors, and easy to use. The practical application of nearly three years proves that it is applicable.