承德市地质灾害气象预报方法初探

Methods for Forecasting Geological-Meteorological Disasters in Chengde

分析承德市1954-2003年地质灾害资料及对应的降水资料，初步揭示了承德市地质灾害发生规律，找出了地质灾害发生与降水的关系。结果表明：局地强降水是诱发地质灾害的主要因素。由于不同地区具有不同的地质结构，根据地质灾害的区划、当日降水强度以及前期降水情况划分了承德市发生地质灾害的3种降水类型：前期饱和型、未来触发型和降水集中型，并确定了3种有利于地质灾害发生的大气环流形势及影响系统，为做好地质灾害气象等级预报预警打下了基础，据此建立的地质灾害气象等级预报预警系统于2005年投入业务使用，应用效果显著。

Based on geological disaster data and the corresponding precipitation data of Chengde, the regularities of geological disasters in Chengde are revealed, and the correlation between geological disasters and precipitation is found. The results show that local strong precipitation is the major triggering factor of geological disasters. Because of different geological structures in different regions, the study divided geological disasters in Chengde into three categories according to the regionalization of geological disasters, the precipitation intensity of the same day, and previous precipitation in Chengde, and identified three kinds of atmospheric circulation patterns favorable to the occurrence of geological disasters. The graded meteorological forecasting and pre-warning system of geological disasters is established accordingly and put into operation in 2005. The results proved encouraging.