煤矿瓦斯浓度与气象因子相关分析及预报模型

Correlative Analysis of Gas Concentration in Coal Mines and Meteorological Factors and Prediction Model

对山西省大同市地方煤矿1979～1997年发生的90起重大典型事故案例进行分析，发现瓦斯事故是发生次数最多，占事故总数的33％，而其造成的灾害也最重。瓦斯浓度的高低与气象因子具有一定的相关性，通过统计计算，得出了旬瓦斯浓度与旬气温、旬气压的相关关系，建立了旬瓦斯浓度预报模型和逐日瓦斯浓度等级预报模型。预报拟合率和试报效果较好。利用该研究成果，结合中短期天气预报，可以提前预报瓦斯浓度的变化趋势，对于搞好煤矿安全生产的管理，及时加大通风，减少事故发生具有重要意义。

An analysis is made of 90 major accidents occurred from 1979 to 1997 in Datong coal mines of Shanxi Province,and it is found that gas accidents occur most frequently （33 % of total accidents） and result in heavy damages. The correlation between meteorological factors （temperature, air pressure）and gas concentrations is studied through statistical calculation on a 10-day base. The gas concentration prediction model and the day-to-day graded gas concentration prediction model are established, and the trial application indicates that the models can be used to predict well the tendency of gas concentration in coal mines, so to serve the safety management of coal mine production.