项目投资决策风险分析方法研究——一种基于现金流量的边际分析方法

On the Risk of Policy Decision in Project Investments: A marginal analysis method based on cash flow

传统的投资项目评价理论中,对项目现金流量的评估和分析未能揭示现金流量构成在结构上的特征,因而难以刻划出项目投资决策的系统性风险所在。运用边际分析的方法,将现金流量的结构特征体现出来,可以更加突现对项目投资决策性风险的识别和化解方法。本文基于现金流量机构变化分析的这种研究方法构建了从决策风险到决策后果——现金流量系统的一种新的分析理论,我们可称之为“RiskofInvestment-CashFlow(RI—CF)理论”。作为一种新的尝试,这种分析方式也可以被运用到其他更多对象上去。

In the traditional theories about the evaluation of project investments, the analysis of cash flow fails to reveal its structural characteristics and therefore fails to illustrate the systemic risk of policy decision in project investments. However, by embodying the structural characteristics in the marginal analysis, it will be clearer and easier to discern and manage the risk of this kind. Based on the analysis about the structural changes of cash flow, this paper has advanced a new theory on the cash flow system form the risk of policy decision to the results of it; which can be named as ＂Risk of Cash Flow （RI-CF） Theory＂. As a kind of new attempt, this analysis method has the opportunity to be applied to other objects.