全球气侯长期振动的Fokker－Planck方程及其求解

FOKKER-PLANCK EQUATION OF LONG-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION AND ITS SOLUTION

假定行星反照率为温度的平方关系，导出了零维随机动力气候模式。对相应的ＦｏｋｋｅｒＰｌａｎｃｋ方程用矩阵连分法求解，得到了１０万年，４万年，２万年气候周期的本征值和本征向量。数值计算表明，在随机噪声强度Ｄ＝１．９５时，１０万年气候振动具有最大的振幅，即Ｍｉｌａｎｋｏｖｉｔｃｈ理论无法解释的１０万年周期。

Assuming the planetary albedo is equal to a temperature square. a zero-dimensional stochastic-dynamic climate model has been suggested. The appropriate Fokker-Planck equation is solved by use of the matrix continude-fraction method, eigen values and eigen vectors of 100 000a, 40 000a and 20 000a climatic periods are obtained. It is shown from the numerical computation that the climatic fluctuation of 100 000a has maximum amplitude when taking intensity of random noise D = 1. 95. the fluctuation is not explained with the Milankovitch theory.