摘要
传统的以风险分析技术为基础的投资机会评价方法需要输入参数的相对频率,而在BOT建设项目中参数的相对频率是不容易获取的。基于此,提出了一种能为投资项目的财务与非财务因素的综合影响建模的方法,它使用可能性理论去解决财务与非财务因素所固有的不确定性问题。采用了ANP方法来确定非财务因素的相对权重,较好地解决了BOT项目不确定性问题,模型运算较简单,便于操作。
The traditional evaluation methods incorporating risk techniques require the input of relative frequencies of parameters,which are not easily available in construction.So this paper proposes a method capable of modelling the effects of both monetary and non-monetary aspects of an investment option,using possibility theory to handle the inherent uncertainty associated with such aspects.To elicit criteria weights of the non-monetary factors properly,the hierarchical scaling method,ANP is recommended.The non-monetary aspects of BOT project are solved by this model,which is easier and more convenient to count.
出处
《工业工程》
2007年第1期126-129,共4页
Industrial Engineering Journal
关键词
BOT
可能性理论
ANP方法
投资机会评价
BOT
the possibility theory
the ANP method
investment opportunity evaluation
