水库实时调度的研究

A Study on Reservoir Real Time Operation

结合安徽省淠河灌区优化调度成果，通过逐步回归法，建立了水库放水量与其各因子之间的统计数学模型，即回归模型。提出一种基于回归模型基础上的实时调度方法，即采用逐日实测来水资料，逐日修正回归模型中预报来水因子的办法，减小了由于中短期预报不准确造成的误差，从而使优化调度的成果可以切实用于指导水库的调度。

The statistical relationships of water release from reservoirs with various factors are found by regression for the optimal operation results of Pihe irrigation Area, Anhui Province.The real time operation method proposed in this paper is based on the regression model which uses the measured daily runoff data to modify the runoff factor in the prediction. The model may decrease the error caused by inaccuracy in short or mid-time prediction, so that the optimal regulation results can be used in practice.