中国北方农牧交错地区农牧业生产模型及应用:Ⅰ.模型

Agriculture-Stock Production in Agro-Pastoral Interlaced Region in Northern China:I.Models

农牧交错区的农牧业生产系统是一个受到社会、经济和自然因素影响的复杂系统,对其模型化需要建立分层系列模型。以农业经济学和土地资源学研究成果为基础,结合风沙科学研究的有关结论以及深入的综合分析,得到了一套包含25个基本变量的农牧业生产数学模型。次一级的模型包括有效劳动模型、固定资本模型、生产费用模型和土地生产潜力模型。在土地生产潜力模型中专门考虑了土地利用类型及沙漠化程度的影响,以确保模型的适用性。基于这套模型可以对农牧业生产的诸多特征进行较为全面的分析。

The production system of agriculture-stock in agro-pastoral interlaced region in Northern China is a complex system which is affected not merely by social and economic factors but also by natural factors. A group of hierarchical models is needed to describe the complex system. The paper proposed a set of models including 25 basic variables representing social and economical and natural settings. Sub-models are effective labor model, fixed capital model, productive cost model and land productivity model. The effects of land use type and desertification on the land productivity are considered. The group of hierarchical models can be applied for analyzing the feature of the production system of agriculture-stock.