生态脆弱地区资源-环境-经济协调发展程度评价——以民勤地区为例

Evaluation of Coordinated Development Degrees of Environment-Resource-Economy System in Ecological Fragile Area——A Case Study in Minqin District

在分析生态脆弱地区“资源-环境-经济”系统特征的基础上,以民勤地区为例建立综合评价指标体系,引用协调发展程度计算模型,采用灰色系统方法对该地区过去及未来经济与环境协调发展程度进行计算并预测。结果表明,民勤地区资源、环境与经济相互协调发展程度较低,其未来10a协调发展程度呈下滑态势;从发展能力、协调能力、可持续能力三方面采取措施后,对主要影响因子重新预测后其协调发展程度呈上升趋势,最后提出民勤地区协调持续发展需要解决的问题。

This paper has analyzed the characters of ＂environment-resource-economy＂ system in ecological fragile area, has established the integrated evaluating index system by taking Minqin district of Gansu province as study example, has calculated and predicted the coordinated development degree of ＂environment-resource-economy＂ system of the study region by grey system method and the model of calculating the coordinated development degree. The result suggests that the coordinated development degree of the ＂environment-resource-economy＂ system in Minqin is very low and will decline in the future 10 years. Only if adopting measures on improving the ability of developing, coordinating and sustaining, the coordinated development degree would go up. Further, some problems which are needed to be solved for the sustainable development of Minqin have been proposed in the paper.