吉林省生态足迹动态分析与预测

Dynamic analysis and forecast of ecological footprints in Jilin Province

生态足迹模型是度量可持续发展的一种方法，运用它对吉林省可持续发展状况的评价和未来发展趋势进行研究，为吉林省可持续发展提供决策依据．利用生态足迹模型研究了吉林省1978-2002年生态足迹和生态承载力，运用回归分析对吉林省2004。2016年生态足迹和生态承载力做出了预测．结果表明：1978—2002年，吉林省人均生态足迹从1．090hm^2增加到2．457hm^2，年平均增长率达到3．45％；人均生态承载力从1．210hm^2下降到1．096hm^2，年均下降率为0．4％．除1978年、1980年存在生态盈余，其余年份均是生态赤字，且生态赤字总体呈扩大趋势．2004～2016年，吉林省人均生态足迹年平均增长率将达到1．99％，人均生态承载力下降率达0．5％．探讨了‘生态足迹模型存在的一些问题以及尚需研究的内容．

Ecological footprints model is a method of measuring the sustainable development. The model was applied to evaluate the present situation of sustainable development of Jilin province and its developing trend in future, which can provide suggestions for the sustainable development of Jilin province. We reviewed the past and present study of the model and the way of its calculation. Ecological footprints （EF） and ecological capacity （EC） in Jilin province from 1978 to 2002 were studied by the ecological footprints model and ecological footprints and ecological capacity of Jilin province from 2004 to 2016 was predicted by the regression model. Results showed ： from 1978 to 2002, in Jilin province, the per capital EF increased from 1.090hm^2 to 2.457hm^2 and the increase speed per year was 3.45% ; the per capital EC decreased from 1.210hm^2 to 1.096hm^2, and the decrease speed per year was 0.4%. There was ecological surplus in 1978 and 1980, while in the other years there ecological deficit. From 2004 to 2016, the increase speed per year of per capital EF will reach 1.99%, and the decrease speed per year of per capital EC will reach 0.5 %. The extant problems of ecological footprints model and further study were also discussed.