风险分析实践的感悟

Some of our comprehension and understanding in Risk Analysis and Management for Water Resources Development and disaster management

考虑到我国水资源短缺、水灾害频发和水环境恶化的情势,在水利建设和管理中,突出风险意识是非常必要的和十分及时的。我们多年从事风险分析实践的感悟是：水利风险模拟分析完全不同于建筑结构物的可靠度计算,更不是模拟设计洪水的淹没范围和水深,其真谛是在于如实模拟出当地的水旱灾害的不确定性,是对传统思维模式的重大的突破。有些传统理念也有必要作调整,如：工程水文学科的内涵,可持续发展的不确定性和风险分析的风险。

The combination of China＇s water scarcity, frequent occurrences of water-related natural disasters and deterioration of environment makes it necessary for practitioners to include risk concept, measures and best practices in all aspects of water resources development and disaster management. One understanding from our risk analysis and management experiences in Water Resource and Water Environment Management practices is： Model-Based Risk Analysis is neither a reliability calculation such as those used for building construction nor a technical hydraulic simulation used for modeling the flood coverage and flood level of the Design Flood either. The mission-critical factor for Model-Based Risk Analysis is to capture location-specific risk drivers and their behaviors for each and every location that we model. At the heart of Model-Based Risk Analysis is an alternative conceptual framework. This framework sheds new light on traditional concepts, such as the coverage of Engineering Hydrology, Uncertainties in Sustainable Development, Risks in Risk Analysis.