基于LEAP的中国钢铁行业CO_2减排潜力分析

Abatement potential of CO_2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry based on LEAP

为了评估中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力,利用长期能源替代规划系统(long range energy a lternatives p lann ingsystem,LEAP)软件建立了LEAPCh ina模型。用该模型模拟了3个不同情景下中国钢铁行业2000—2030年CO2排放量及相应的减排潜力。根据减排成本评估其可行性并识别重点减排技术。模拟结果表明,相对基准情景,当前政策情景和新政策情景下的年均CO2减排量分别为0.51亿t和1.07亿t,所需要的总的额外资金投入分别为93.4亿美元和809.49亿美元。因此,钢铁行业具有一定的CO2减排潜力,实现减排主要通过行业结构调整和技术进步。如果目前制定的政策措施得到有效实施,那么可以以较低的成本实现减排;但是进一步的减排受制于高昂的成本。

A model was developed based on the LEAP （long range energy alternatives planning system） software to assess the CO2 abatement potential of China＇s iron and steel industry from 2000 to 2030 according to cost information. The results show that the average CO2 abatement for the recent policy scenario and the new policy scenario, compared with the reference secnario, are 51 Mt/a and 107 Mt/a, respectively. Total incremental costs are 9. 34 billion and 80. 95 billion US dollars, respectively. Therefore, China＇s iron and steel industry has a large CO2 abatement potential which will depend on structure adjustments and technclogy advances in the industry. Implementation of sustainable development policies can result in low cost CO2 abatement, hut more abatement will be very expensive.