我国普通高等教育扩招情况及其对毕业生就业影响分析

The Condition of the Enrollment Expansion of China in Higher Education and its Impact on the Employment of Graduates

本文通过介绍我国普通高等教育扩招的背景入手,分析了扩招后普通高等教育招生数与毕业生数的变化情况,预测了从现在到2023年我国普通高等教育招生数及毕业生数的变化态势,认为高校招生数及毕业生数在今后一二十年里都将处于较高水平,高校毕业生不得不面对就业压力与激烈竞争。结合劳动经济学理论模拟劳动力市场供给变化来说明高校毕业生失业的发生机制。最后得出扩招使高校毕业生失业现象加剧,但毕业生就业难不能归咎于扩招的结论。

From introducing the background of the enrollment expansion, this paper has analyzed the change of the enrollment and graduates of China＇s higher education since the enrollment expansion, and predicts its future trend from now to 2023, suggests that the enrollment and graduates wiU always on high level in the following decades, graduates must have to face the employment pressure and heavy competition. The author simulates the change of the supply of labor market together with the theory of labor economies to study the occur of the unemployment of graduates, and concludes that enrollment expansion really aggravates the unemployment of graduates, but we can＇ t blame the problem on the enrollment expansion.