小子样武器装备可靠性评定过程中专家信息的规范化描述

Standardization of description for expert's opinion during weapon reliability evaluation under small sampling test

在对航空航天领域可靠性工程中专家信息的特征进行分析的基础上,分别对模糊描述、概率描述法、专家打分法、主观语言描述方式的专家信息规范化进行了研究,并对基于专家信息的验前分布确定过程进行了分析.建立了专家信息规范化的广义验前信息描述、基于不确定性加权验前信息描述、最大熵法验前信息描述的验前分布确定模型.论文的研究对于小子样条件下运用Bayes方法分析系统可靠性时,基于专家信息的验前分布确定具有重要的工程指导意义.

Based on the characteristics analysis of expert＇s opinion in reliability engineering in aerospace field, the article presents the standardization description for three types of fuzzy description,viz, probability description, expert marking method, and subjective language description method. In addition, the prior distribution foundation on expert＇s opinion was carried out. In this article, the standardization models of general prior distribution, the weighted method based on expert＇s uncertainty, and maximum entropy method are presented. It is useful for getting the prior distribution from expert＇s opinion in reliability engineering when filed test data are small samplings and Bayes method is used.