城市环境噪声污染预测模型及应用

Forecast models of urban noise and their application

调查收集了某城市环境噪声污染监测的历史数据,应用指数平滑法建立了预测城市环境噪声污染的数学模型,并计算了不同平滑系数时数学模型的精度,同时应用建立的数学模型对该市10 n内的噪声污染进行了预测.结果发现,噪声污染呈逐年加剧趋势,到2015年区域环境噪声和交通噪声污染分别达55.51dB(A)和70.51 dB(A).指数平滑法的应用效果与平滑系数的选取关系密切,应用时要根据指数平滑法建立的物理意义正确地分析和选取平滑系数,并对预测的精度进行分析.

In order to investigate the noise pollution of the city, the exponential smooth method was used to establish the mathematical models based on the history measuring data for forecasting the noise pollution. Accuracy analyses of the noise pollution with different smooth coefficients were conducted, and the mathematical models were applied to forecast the pollution in the next ten years. The forecast results show that the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise are rising gradually every year, and if no measures are adapted the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise will rise to 55.51 dB（A）and 70.51 dB（A）in 2015 respectively. The smooth coefficient is the key factor in the application of the exponential smooth method. To apply the exponential smooth method, analysis and selection of the smooth coefficients should be made carefully.