经济政策分析的演化经济学视角转向

The Evolutionary Angle Transition of the Analysis for Economic Policy

纵观整个经济史,各种各样的经济政策失败的例子比比皆是。而我国以凯恩斯主义宏观需求管理和总量调节为基本政策的取向同样面临“活乱”循环等问题。财政政策和货币政策在我国面临着巨大的挑战。问题的根本在于经济政策的非演化分析,这体现在偏重数量性经济政策建议、非过程分析、不切实际的人性假定、侧重负反馈的作用和致力于最优制度供给的研究等五个方面。经济政策分析面临着范式的转变,新的范式应该包括时空结构、考虑人性的复杂和强调异质性与互动的作用。

Through the observation of the economic history, there are a lot of examples of the economic policy failures. The orientation of the Keynesian for the policy, which emphasizes the macro management of the demands and aggregate regulation, makes China in a circulation of aliveness and chaos. The fiscal and monetary policies both face the great challenge. It is because of its methods of the analysis for the policy, that is the emphasis on the quantitative policy, the non - process analysis, the unrealistic assumption of the human nature, the emphasis on the effect of the negative - feedback and the study of the optimal institutions that makes the policy failure. There ought to be a model transition for the analysis of the policy. The new model should include the space - time structure, the complexities of the human nature and the emphasis on the interaction and connections.