东亚各国贸易结构相似性考察——兼谈东亚经济一体化基础

Survey on the Similarity of the Trade Structure of the Countries of East Asia——On integration base of the East Asia Economy

区域经济一体化是当今世界经济发展的潮流,东亚各国的地理位置相近和经济发展程度相似成为了该地区建立自由贸易区的天然基础。东亚各国贸易结构相似性分析结果显示,东亚各国之间以及与东亚整体的贸易相似程度较高,如能建立自由贸易区,会呈现较大的贸易创造效应。同时,各国之间的贸易结构又不完全趋同,出口商品的适度差异性说明在结成自由贸易组织以后不会遇到过大的政治上的阻力。

Regional integration is one important trend in today＇s world economic development. Being in neighboring region and similar economic developing stage become the natural condition for setting ETA in East Asia. In this paper, we analyze the feasibility of the ETA of ASEAN10 and China, Japan, Korea using Trade Similarity Index. The results show that, there is high degree of trade similarity between East Asian countries, as well as between individual country and the whole East .Asia, which shows there will. be large trade creation effects once the FTA comes into being. Also the results show that some degree of trade diversity exists, which means the political resistance will not be a major obstacle in the setting up of East Asia FlA.