中国经济周期的福利成本：1978-2004

The Welfare Cost of China＇s Business Cycles： 1978 -2004

本文通过Lucas理论模型,探讨中国改革开放以来经济周期的福利成本,得出以下结论:在取相同的相对风险规避系数情况下,中国居民消费发生的结构性变化导致1990年之后的经济周期福利成本显著小于1990年之前的经济周期福利成本;中国1990年之前的经济周期福利成本是美国经济周期福利成本的4倍多,中国1990年之后的经济周期福利成本小于美国的经济周期福利成本。为尽可能减小经济周期的福利成本,中国应该坚定不移地积极进行市场化改革,从而最终建立完善的市场经济体制。

This paper discusses the welfare cost of China＇ s business cycle through a Lucas＇s theoretical model. The paper draws several conclusions as follows： with the same coefficient of relative risk aversion, the structural change of Chinese consumption makes that the welfare cost of China＇s business cycle after 1990 is obviously less than the welfare cost of China＇s business cycle before 1990. With the same coefficient of relative risk aversion, the welfare cost of China＇s business cycle before 1990 is 4 times as much as the welfare cost of America＇s business cycle, but the welfare cost of China＇s business cycle after 1990 is less than the welfare cost of America＇s business cycle. In order to decrease the welfare cost of China＇s business cycle as much as possible, China should unalterably and aggressively carry out the marketing change and ultimately create a perfect market economy system.