衡量城市化与工业化比较水平的新指标研究

Research on the New Index of Measuring the Relative Level of the Urbanization and Industrialization

本文通过Granger因果关系检验和回归分析,分别确定了城市化和工业化的特征指标,即建筑业产值和机械工业产值。并以此构建衡量城市化与工业化比较水平的指标,即建筑业产值与机械工业产值的比值。进而使用该指标对中国及其他部分国家的现状做横向的比较,发现中国城市化相对于工业化的水平较其他国家滞后。同时对中国纵向的发展分析发现,城市化与工业化比较水平波动较大,受到诸多因素的影响。

Using the Granger Test of Causality and linear regression analysis, we standardize the output of the construction industry as the measure of the urbani- zation while that of machinery industry for industrialization. In the light of this analysis, we use the ratio of the output of the two as a new index for the relative level. Applying this theory into the practice, we found that the relative level in China lags behind, compared with other countries, and fluctuates attributing to various reasons.