潜在产出与产出缺口的界定与测算方法

The Definition and Measurement Method of Potential Output and Output Gap

潜在产出与产出缺口是宏观经济学的重要概念,是经济政策制定的重要依据。潜在产出的内涵有凯恩斯主义传统的和新古典宏观学派的两类界定,潜在产出的测算方法可以分为统计分解趋势法、经济结构关系估计法和二者相结合法三大类,国内外已有大量的潜在产出和产出缺口测算研究和实践,大多同时采用多种测算方法,其中生产函数法是普遍认同的方法,潜在产出和产出缺口测算不准确往往会导致政策制定的偏差,它们的测算方法还有待于进一步的完善。

Potential output and output gap is the important concepts of the macroeconomics, is the importance base on which economic policy draw up. potential output has two definition of the Keynesian traditional and the neoclassic macroeconomic school, The measurement method of potential output can divided into three major type of statistical trend partition method, economic structure relation estimate method and the combination method. There are already a lot of research and measurement practice about broad, mostly adopt more than one measurement methods at potential output and output gap both at home and a- the same time, among them the production function method is a widespread accepted one, The incorrect measurement of potential output and output gap will usually causes policy drawing up incorrectly, their measurement method still need further perfected.