以SARS为例的传染病传播模型

An Propagation Model of such Epidemic Disease as SARS

以北京疫情的有关数据进行研究,给出SARS病毒传播的SIR模型。定义σ=λδ为接触数。并指出1σ是模型SIR的一个阈值。给出了λ及σ的估计值。认为σ对疫情的发展及判断上起到非常重要的作用。利用一元线性回归及MATLAB数学软件拟合出模型中的几个初始值(S0,I0,R0)及参数值(λ,σ)。并绘出S(t)、I(t)的相轨线,并对相轨线进行了分析,得到了满意的结果,为预防类SARS传染病及控制疫情发展提供较为可靠的依据。

Using the data from Beijing, a useful improved SIR model of SARS is constructed. Based on the law of disease propagation and conservation of population statistics, this paper sets up mathematical models for SAILS, applies mathematical method to analyze the model. This model provides theoretical basis for preventing and controlling the propagation of the epidemic.