灰色系统理论在森林资源消耗量预测中的应用

The Application of the Grey System Theory in the Prediction of Forest Resource Consumption

本文应用邓聚龙教授创立的灰色系统理论与方法，以林业部华东森林资源监测中心１９８５－１９９３年对我省调查的森林资源消耗量数据为基础，以１９８３－１９８８年和１９８８－１９９３年全省森林资源连续清查复查的森林资源消耗量数据分段控制，建立灰色预测的ＧＭ（１，１）模型群，从中选出一个误差最小的模型，对我省１９９４－２０００年的森林资源消耗量进行预测。预测结果经过１９９４年消耗量调查数据的实践检验，精度达９８．５％。

Based on some data of the forest resource consumption in Fujian Province，this paper applied the grey system theory and method created by Prof．Deng Julong to predict the provincial forest resource consumption from 1994 to 2000．The precision of the prediction was up to 98．5％through the practical test of the consumption survey data in 1994.