全球经常项目失衡问题研究

Research on Global Current Account Imbalances

近些年,全球经常项目失衡问题成为经济研究者、国际机构和各国中央银行经济学家以及商务经济研究报告竞相研究的热点问题。本文构建了经常项目影响因素的一个简单的理论模型,应用该结构性模型考察了一国在世界经济中的地位、政府财政收支以及对外净资产等经济变量对经常项目的影响,利用52个国家或地区1980年到2004年经济数据就理论模型所关注的经济变量对经常项目的影响进行了实证研究,并且对解决当前全球经常项目失衡问题提出了相关建议。

Recently the global current account imbalances have received considerable attention and been the hot subject of enormous amount of study in the economics academia, among the international organizations and central banks economists, in business economics reports. This paper makes a theoretical model to analyze the influencing economic factors of the current account. Recurring to the structural model, this paper stresses the shares of one country’s output to the world outputs, government budget balance, and net foreign assets. Using a sample of 52 countries or regions and time series data from 1980 to 2004, this paper finds the results of the empirical research to support our structural model. At last, this paper gives some policy analysis on the global current account imbalances based on the empirical research.