中国城镇化与产业结构关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization and Industrial Structure of China

本文以1978～2004年的数据为样本空间，运用ADF单位根检验法、Johansen协整检验法、Engle Granger误差修正理论和Granger因果分析法对中国城镇化和产业结构之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明，中国的产业结构与城镇化之间具有长期的均衡关系但有别于其短期关系、单向的格兰杰因果关系以及它们各自的变动均具有惯性等结论。根据实证分析结果及其原因的探讨，提出中国在经济发展过程中，应认识到城镇化和产业结构二者之间的长短期关系，进一步改革户籍制度，有选择地引进、改造和吸收适宜先进技术、加大城镇基础设施投入、优化城镇投资环境和大力发展第三产业等政策建议。

Using the data from 1978 to 2004 as samples and applying ADF unit root test approach, Johansen co - integration test approach, Engle Granger error correction theory and Granger causality analysis approach, this article makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the urbanization and the industrial structure of China. The results show that there is a long - term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization and the industrial structure of China, which is different from their short - term relationship and that the one - way Granger causality and their respective variances all have inertia. On the basis of the empirical analysis results and the discussion of their causes, this article advances that in the course of Chinese economic development we should be cognizant of the long - term and short -term relationship between the urbanization and the industrial structure of China, further reform the registration institution, introduce, transform and absorb appropriate advanced technology selectively, increase urban infrastructure investment, optimize urban investment environment and devote major efforts to developing the tertiary industry of our country.