经常项目和资本与金融项目的分析及比较

Analysis and Comparative Research on the Relationship between China's Current Account and Capital Account

改革开放以来,我国经常项目和资本与金融项目的变动并未出现理论上的平衡关系,通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验发现,中国经常项目和资本与金融项目之间存在唯一的协整关系,资本与金融项目变化是经常项目变化的Granger原因。在此基础上,进一步比较了中日两国经常项目和资本与金融项目关系的异同。最后指出,为了更好地调节我国的国际收支,应该保持经常项目和资本与金融项目的稳定。

Since reform and opening up, the alternation of China＇ s Current and Capital Account didn＇ t appear equilibrium relation of that the sum of two accounts is zero. Current Account and Capital Account are always surplus. Using Cointegration Test and Granger Causation to research these two accounts,the results show that these two accounts have only one Cointegrafion relationship, Capital Account is the causation of Current Account. Based on this analysis, the artcle researches the difference between China and Japan about Current Account and Capital Account. Lastly, this article points out that we should keep Current Account and Capital Account stable to keep balance of payments equilibrium.