广州市能源消费与GDP及能源结构关系的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Impact of GDP and Energy Structure on Energy Consumption in Guangzhou

能源消费及能源结构与GDP之间关系对于广州的能源环境和经济的可持续发展十分重要。本文在广州市1980-2003年的年度统计数据基础上,运用格兰杰因果关系检验研究了时间序列变量之间是否存在因果关系;并运用协整理论研究了广州市1980-2003年能源消费与GDP及能源结构之间的关系。研究结果表明广州市GDP和能源结构是能源消费的Granger原因,并且GDP与能源消费及能源结构之间存在长期均衡关系,能源结构对能源消费的影响大于经济增长的影响。

This paper studies the relation among energy consumption , GDP and eaergy structure with cointegration theory and studies the Granger causality between the three time series d 1980- 2003 in Guangzhou. The result of study indicates that GDP, energy structrure are the Granger reason of energy consumption, the balanced relation exists for a long time between energy consumption, GDP and eaergy structrure and the impact on energy demand of the energy structure is greater than on the economic growth.