基于信息扩散理论的中国沿海特大台风暴潮灾害风险分析

Risk Assessment of Swingeing Storm Surge Disaster in Coastal Area of China Induced by Typhoon Based on Information Diffusion Method

引入能够优化处理小样本和体现风险评估模糊不确定性的基于信息扩散原理的模糊风险计算模型，应用1949～2000年中国沿海特大台风暴潮记录数据对中国沿海特大台风暴潮灾害进行了风险评估，给出了中国沿海特大台风暴潮灾害的超越概率曲线并进行计算，结果与2001～2005年期间中国沿海特大台风暴潮的实际发生情况基本相吻合。该方法简单易行，分析结果意义清楚，对防灾减灾具有一定的指导作用。

China is one of the countries in the world that are seriously affected by typhoon-induced storm surge disasters. The typhoon-induced storm Surge disasters with high intensity resulting in serious consequences have been infrequent in history. Due to the insufficiency of the historic data, fuzzy risk assessment model based on information diffusion, which is able to optimize the small samples and embody the neutral things, is introduced to analyze the typhoon-induced storm surge disasters. The risk of typhoon-induced storm surge disaster is assessed by using the historic data of the swingeing storm surges in the coastal areas of China during the period of 1949 - 2000. The exceeding-probability curve is presented, and it shows that the frequency of the typhoon-induced swingeing storm surge in the coastal area of China would be high and the intensity.would be great in coming decades. Then, the calculated result is compared with the practical situation of the coastal areas of China during the period of 2001 - 2005. It is shown that the result tallies approximately with the practical situation. The study result would be helpful to alleviation of the pressure brought by storm surge disasters and making risk management in the coastal area of China.