海峡西岸经济区与长三角、珠三角经济区产业同构化的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Similarization of Industry Structure between the West of the Straits,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta

产业同构化是目前国内各大经济区产业升级优化和彼此合作发展的瓶颈之一。选定海峡西岸经济区,长三角和珠三角经济区为研究对象,从三次产业、工业和第三产业内部结构3个方面着手,应用相似系数这一指标,分别从静态与动态的角度着重分析海西区/珠三角区和海西区/长三角区的产业同构的现状与变化,并在此基础上,依据分形理论中的R/S分析方法,预测其产业同构化的未来发展趋势,期望能够为海西区确定未来经济发展的合理方向和产业结构调整的原则提供理论依据。

The similarization of industrial structure is one of current bottlenecks to the development of regional integration and industrial optimization in China. The Economic Zones of the West of the Straits （ EZWS）, the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） and the Pearl River Delta （PRD） are the regions with strong vigor of economic development in the country. In this paper Fujian Province, Shanghai City, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong Provinces are taken as research objects. The present situation of the industrial structure for the three regions during the period of 1996 - 2003 is analyzed by applying similarity coefficient. The results show that： 1. The similarity coefficient of the structure of tertiary industry between EZWS and PRD is higher than that between EZWS and YRD, and that of primary industry and secondary industry between EZWS and YRD is higher than that between EZWS and PRD, the situation means the similarization of the industrial structure for the three regions is obvious. 2. During the period of 1996 - 2003, the similarity coefficients of the structure and of tertiary industry for the three regions were basically high and were above 0.9, and those of secondary industry were low, less than 0.5, but had a rising trend. 3. According to R/S analysis from fractal theory, it is forecasted that if the three regions keep developing under the customary environment, the rising trend of the similarization of industrial structure will be continuing in the coming years.