我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀

An Empirical Study on Quantitative Relation between Foreign Exchange and Inflation

近年来,我国外汇储备规模迅猛增长,截至2006年6月,已高达9411亿美元,超过日本成为全球持有外汇储备最多的国家。那么外汇储备的增加对我国的物价指数的变动是否产生影响以及影响有多大?本文以国际货币主义的通货膨胀传导机制为理论基础,应用协整分析法、格兰杰因果关系分析法,分析物价水平与外汇储备之间的因果关系、长期均衡关系,在实证结果基础上得出结论并分析结果。

Our country＇ s foreign exchange reserve has been a great growth in recent years, which reach 941.1 billion US dollars up to June, 2006 and has already became the country all over the world holding most foreign exchange reserve with surpassing Japan. Whether and how much does the increase of foreign exchange reserve have influence on our country＇s price index？ The analysis on this question is studied by many scholars, since the different policy is posed based on different research conclusion to this studies. This paper try to use Co-integration analysis method and Gralnger causal analysis method to study the causal relation and the long-term equilibrium relations between the price level and the foreign exchange reserve based on inflation conduction mechanism proposed by international monetarism school, finally giving and analyzing the conclusion based on the empirical study.