区域旅游资源的灾害风险评估——以内蒙古克什克腾旗为例

Disaster Risks Assessment of Regional Tourism Resources:A Case Study of Inner Mongolia Keshiketeng Banner

随着全球环境灾害的日见频繁,对区域旅游资源所面临的灾害风险进行评估已成为关系到旅游业可持续发展的重大问题。为有利于该问题的解决,本文对旅游资源灾害风险的概念及其评估的内涵予以明确界定,并高度概括出评估程序的六大步骤和四大重点。文章从致灾因子危险性、旅游资源易损性和风险防治能力这3个维度精心选择了8个评估指标,并借助于量化的评估方法与模型,对内蒙古克什克腾旗的八大景区旅游资源灾害风险进行了综合评估。对评估结果,作者予以详细的分析,认为克旗旅游资源所面临的干旱和虫灾风险比较突出,而地震风险较低,其综合风险在8个景区的分布可被划分为高、中、低3个等级。由于风险评估能够清楚地表明区域旅游资源所面临的灾害风险的种类与程度,为旅游资源的保护决策提供可靠的依据,所以,作者还进一步认为,在区域旅游发展规划与旅游区规划的编制过程中,针对旅游资源的防灾保护,宜增加相应的灾害风险评估内容。

As environmental disasters happened more frequently in the world, disaster risks assessment of regional tourism resources is important to the sustainable development of regional tourism. The concepts of disaster risks and the relevant assessment of regional tourism resources were investigated. The significance of risks assessment for tourism resources was highlighted by focusing on six steps and four key points. The six important steps include field survey, assessment plan, risk source identification, risks assessment of single resource, overall assessment, and feedback collection. The four key points are indicator selection, assessment method selection, assessment models development, and data processing. We chose eight assessment indicators from three aspects that play important roles in characterizing the disaster risks of tourism resources ： the danger of disasters, the vulnerability of tourism resources, and the prevention. The quantification of qualitative assessment indicators is imperative to the s capability of risk ubsequent step of building the modeling framework of risk assessment. A series of quantitative methods and models for risk assessment have been well developed in the literature and provide methodological support for this study. The disaster risks of tourism resources in eight scenic spots of Keshiketeng Banner were assessed within an integrated modeling framework which combines a weighted overall method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. We analyzed the assessment results in association with the geographical characteristics of the study area and concluded that the tourism resources in the Keshiketeng Banner area were facing significant high risks of drought and insects but low risk of earthquake. The spatial distribution of integrated risks for the eight scenic spots can be classified into three levels： high, medium, and low. Risk assessment reveals the categories and the levels of disaster risks of regional tourism resources, and provides a basis for the decision-making of tourism resources protection. The disaster risks assessment should be combined into the tourism resources protection when making the regional tourism development plans and the tourism area plans.