中国货币替代现象的VEC模型:1994-2005

VEC Model of Currency Substitution in China:1994-2005

随着人民币汇率制度改革的进行和资本账户开放进程的加快,中国的货币替代现象理当引起我们更大的关注。本文通过建立货币替代的VEC模型对中国的货币替代程度及其影响因素之间的关系作了动态分析,最后得出人民币名义有效汇率在长期和短期内都是影响中国货币替代的主要因素,名义有效汇率的频繁波动会造成货币替代乃至货币需求的不稳定。因此加快人民币汇率制度改革、降低美元在人民币汇率盯住篮子中的比重就显得尤为重要了。

With the acceleration of RMB exchange rate regime reform and capital account opening process,China's currency substitution should be given more concerns.In this paper,VEC model was employed to analyze the relationship between currency substitution and relative factors in China.We conclude that RMB nominal effective exchange rate is the main factor which affects currency substitution in China in the long run and short run,and the frequent fluctuation of nominal effective exchange rate would cause the instability of currency substitution and even monetary demand.Thus it is important to accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate and decrease the proportion of US dollar in the RMB exchange rate pegging basket.