吴起县2015年水资源承载力评价

Estimation on the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Wuqi County in 2015

通过对吴起县生态和社会经济的全面调查,基于水量平衡理论,预测了吴起县2015年各行业的用水量,并运用水资源平衡指数对该县未来的水资源承载力进行了评价。结果表明：以目前的产业结构及发展趋势,到2015年时,吴起县农业用水量为0．2954×108m3,畜牧用水量为0．0012×108m3,林草地用水量为1．1063×108m3,工业用水量为0．0738×108m3,生活用水量为0．0196×108m3,总需水量为1．4963×10m3,占实际可利用水资源总量(1．9014×108m3)的78．7％,年内基本能满足水资源消耗的要求；以维持植被年内生长,避免土壤干层为目标的林地最小生态需水量为2．8612×108m3,水资源平衡指数为-1．5,水资源今后将难以承载生态和经济的发展规模。林业、农业及工业生产用水占用水总量的98．62％,说明在目前广泛进行黄土高原地区植被恢复,同时大力促进西北地区经济发展阶隋况下,县域范围今后水资源亏缺的主要压力来自于生态和经济建设耗水。因此,这一地区的水资源承载力研究,应以解决水资源在修复生态和促进经济发展之间相互挤占的矛盾为目的,合理配置,实现生态与经济综合效益最大化。

Abstract： On the basis of generally surveying the ecological, social and economic conditions and water budget theory, in this paper the water consumptions of all the industries in Wuqi County, Shaanxi Province in 2015 are predicted, and the carrying capacity of water resources in the county in the future is assessed by calculating the index of water resources balance. The results show that, according to the current industrial structure and development trend, the water consumptions of agriculture, animal husbandry, woodlands and grasslands, industry, and general life in Wuqi County in 2015 will be 2.954 × 10^7 m^3, 1.2 × 10^5 m^3, 1. 106 3 × 10^8 m^3, 7.38 × 10^6 m^3 and 1.96 × 10^6 m^3 respectively, the total water consumption will be 1. 496 3 × 10^8 m^3 and occupy 78.7 % of the total volume of available water resources, and the water demands will be basically satisfied. Based on the consideration of maintaining vegetation growth and avoiding occurrence of dry soil layer, the minimum ecological water consumption of woodlands will be 2. 861 2 × 10^8 m^3, the index of water resources balance will be - 1.5, and the carrying capacity of water resources will not be able to satisfy the scale of ecological and economic development in the future. The proportion of water consumptions of forestry, agriculture and industry will occupy 98.6296 of the total water consumption, which reveals that the shortage of water resources in the county will mainly occur in the ecological regeneration and the economic development under the conditions of extensively regenerating vegetation in the Loess Plateau and energetically developing economy in northwest China. Therefore, the purpose of researching the carrying capacity of water resources in the county should be based on the consideration of solving the contradiction between the ecological environment regeneration and economic development so as to rationally redistribute water resources and achieve the maximum ecological benefits and economic returns.