从汇率谜团到汇率决定的社会福利平价

Social Welfare Parity:From Exchange Rate Puzzle to Exchange Rate Determination

汇率及汇率制度之争的根本在于真实汇率的确定,而众多的汇率理论及实证模型得出的结论难以统一,有的甚至背道而驰。汇率及汇率制度理论发展至今,仍然存在诸多谜团。总结汇率理论及理论、实证汇率模型的根本假设在于购买力平价、利率平价和生产力差异。从汇率形成原理和人类经济发展角度以及东西方文明的最高诉求而言,以其作为汇率及汇率制度理论的基本假设,都不甚合理。社会福利平价是我们提出的一个有关汇率及汇率制度的新的基本假设,在此基础上,可以从一个侧面更好地揭示汇率及汇率制度选择的本质,特别是关于新兴市场经济国家汇率确定及汇率制度选择的依据问题。

The controversy in the field of exchange rate and regimes lies in the determination of real exchange rate, but the theories haven＇ t been unified yet, and the result of many models was so amazing, contradictory with each other. The theory of exchange rate and regime has been developed for almost hundred years, but so many puzzles still exist. To summarize exchange rate theory and models, we find almost in the basic supposition of purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity and productivity differential. Whether from the principle of exchange rate determination, or the economic development, as well as the highest ideality both in East and West civilization, the old basic supposition seems to be irrational. The social welfare parity is a new basic supposition in exchange rate and regime theory which this article we may promulgate the essence of the exchange rate determination and the exchange rate regime choice better from a new angle, especially about such a question in emerging market country.