水环境退化经济损失的计量方法及其应用

An Econometric Model for Water Environmental Degradation Loss and Its Application

水环境退化较难以市场价格方式体现,是绿色GDP核算的一大难点.分析了影响水环境退化的社会经济因素、自然因素,在此基础上,构建了水环境退化的计量模型,并将社会经济发展的阶段性特征、水资源供需矛盾、降水补给变异特征和水质状况纳入模型中,采用不同参数进行描述,以保证模型的逻辑完备性和计算的简洁性.在湖州市绿色GDP核算过程中,采用该模型分别计算各县区2001—2004年水环境退化的经济损失.这些损失与当地水资源供需矛盾、水污染状况、社会经济发展等因素变化状况相符,准确反映了湖州市水环境退化的实际状况.结果表明,水环境退化的经济损失,除水污染程度外,还受到社会经济因素和降水补给等自然因素的影响.

A major difficult to account green GDP is that water environmental degradation loss is very difficult to be reflected with market prices. On the basis of the analysis of socio-economic factors and natural factors which impact water environmental degradation losses, an econometric model was constructed. In this model, socio-economic development character, the contradictions in the supply and demand of water, supply variability of rainfall and water quality were taken into account, which ensures logic maturity and realizes compact computation. In the case study of Huzhou City, the economic loss of water environment degradation from 2001 to 2004 were calculated and promoted to form a green GDP accounting system of Huzhou City. These results accord with the changes of local water resources supply-demand conflict, water pollution condition and other social-economic factors, and could accurately reflect water environmental degradation in Huzhou City. It indicates that the economic loss due to water environmental degradation would be influenced, not only by water pollution, but also by social-economic factor and precipitation replenishment.