人才预测的系统方法及模型探讨

STUDY OF FORECASTING SYSTEM APPROACH AND MODELS FOR SPECIAL TALENTS

用系统理论的整体性与分解—协调,以及定量与定性相结合的系统方法,讨论了对专门人才需求和合理结构进行长期预测的问题.还讨论了人才拥有量预测的马尔柯夫模型和人才需求总量预测的6种模型,并着重于预测模型及变量选择的一般准则.最后,讨论了验证预测结果的可行性、合理性和可靠性的三项标准.

This paper discusses a question of long-term forecast,demand and reason-able organization for special talents,by entirety principle and decomposition-coordinationprinciple of system theory,as well as system approach of quantitative and qualitative analy-sis.It also discusses Markov model for possible talent quantity,makes use of six forecasting models for total requirement quantity of the talent,and emphatically proposes gen-eral selective criteria of forecasting model and variables for the talent.At the end ofthis paper,the forecasting results are verified by three criteria,that feasibility,reasonability and reliability.