欧盟东扩对中欧贸易的影响——基于关税同盟贸易效应的分析

The Impact of EU's Eastern Enlargement on Trade Between China and the EU——Based on the Analysis of The Trade Effect of Customs Unions

欧盟是世界上最大的区域经济组织,是中国第一大贸易伙伴。欧盟大规模的东扩对中欧贸易产生了重要影响。按照关税同盟理论,欧盟东扩带来的贸易转移效应会给中国对欧出口产生消极影响,然而实际数据说明并非完全如此。本文综合考虑各种可能的因素,分析了产生这一矛盾的原因。

EU is the largest regional economic organization and China＇s first trading partner. EU＇s eastern enlargement has a great influence on Sino-EU＇s bilateral trade. According to the theory of Customs Union, tradediversion effect brought by EU＇s eastern enlargement would have negative effect on China＇s export to the EU. But practical statistics reveals that the fact is not so. This paper considers different possible factors synthetically, explaining the reason for this contradiction.