城市天然气负荷特点及其预测研究

City Natural Gas Load Characteristic and its Forecast Research

对城市天然气各类用户的负荷特点以及现有的负荷预测方法进行了研究。介绍了常用的三类预测方法,分析了各种方法的特点和适用条件并对城市天然气各类用户的用气特点进行了研究,提出了建立以历史数据拟合程度、发展协调一致性和模型可信性为判断标准的天然气负荷层次综合最优组合预测模型体系,认为应加快引进国外先进成熟的负荷预测软件,做好二次开发和应用,研制出适应我国国情的预测软件。

Along with the construction and operation of the natural gas pipeline in the western and the eastern districts in China,the Shaanxi to Beijing Gas Pipeline,Zhongxian to Wuhan Gas Pipeline,the Sebei- Xi'ning-Lanzhou Pipeline and so on,the gas industry in China enters a new stage and the city natural gas utilization project are carrying on fiercely,therefore it is necessary to conduct the research on the city natural gas load characteristic of each kind of users as welt as the existing load forecast method.In this paper,three kinds of forecasts methods which are commonly used at present are introduced:forecast method based on statistics theory;forecast method based on artificial intelligence and the other methods including grey model,the elasticity coefficient forecast and so on.The characteristics and application condi- tions of each method have been analyzed,so have the city natural gas load characteristics of each kind of users.Finally an optimization synthesis forecast model of natural gas load level is established which takes the historical data fitting degree,the development coordination uniformity and the model credibility as the judgment standard and it is suggested that the introduction of foreign advanced load forecast software should be speeded up to carry out the second development and application and develop the forecast software which adapt to the situation of domestic natural gas load forecast.