宏观经济形势与宏观调控政策取向分析

An Analysis of Macro-economic Situation and Regulation Policy

2006年宏观经济运行情况总体较好,国民经济继续保持速度较快、效益较好、物价较低的良好发展势头。当前经济运行存在的突出问题是投资规模偏大、货币信贷投放偏多和国际收支不平衡矛盾加剧。从短期看,经济总量仍处于偏热状态;从中长期看,结构性矛盾更加突出,成为制约经济增长的“软肋”。2007年要继续保持宏观调控政策的连续和稳定,适当调整总量,着力调整结构,将短期调控与中长期结构调整和深化体制改革紧密结合起来,根据形势发展需要适时适度进行调控,促进经济持续协调健康发展。

The macro-economic situation in 2006 has been basically favorable;the economy maintained a high growth rate with high efficiency while the price level was relatively low.The major problems now are excessive investment,excessive money issuance and imbalance of international payment.In short term,the economy is still overheated;in the long term,the structural problem is becoming more severe,which would hamper future economic growth.This paper illustrates that the major tasks in 2007 should be:continuing stable macro-economic regulation,properly adjusting the aggregate scale,striving to improve economic structure,combining both short term and long term regulation with institutional reform,and regulating as appropriate so as to achieve sustainable and healthy economic growth.