一个新的中国宏观物流成本推算模型

A New Estimative Model of Macro Logistics Cost of China

宏观物流成本是反映一国竞争优势的重要指标,本文从回顾宏观物流成本计算方法的文献入手,介绍了几个推算中国宏观物流成本的分析框架,并对它们的利弊得失进行了评价;然后以宏观物流成本的建模原则作为理论起点,引出了本文构建的模型系统,描述了模型变量的选择及其含意、原始数据的采集和处理等关键步骤;最后求出了中国宏观物流成本的推算结果,并对推算结果进行了分析说明。

Macro logistics cost is a key index reflecting a country's competitive advantages.It is an important,fundamental and creative work to understand,measure and declare data of national logistics cost from the aspect of macro economy.The essay starts from retrospect the reference materials about measuring method of macro logistics cost,and introduces several analytical frameworks to estimate national logistics cost of China and appraises their advantages and disadvantages.Then the essay establishes a new model of measuring macro logistics cost of China with a theoretical beginning of modeling principles and expounds the key steps of modeling detailed such as selection and meaning of variables,collection and disposal of basic data,and so on.Finally the essay calculates the data of macro logistics cost of China by applying the new model and analyzes the estimative results.