自然地理格局对区域发展时空分异影响的评价方法

Methods to evaluate the impacts of physio-geographical pattern on the spatio-temporal differentiation of regional development

采用以偏确定性系数来表征自然地理本底条件及其空间分布格局(亦即自然地理格局)对区域发展时空分异的“边际贡献率”,初步构建了一种定量分析自然地理格局对区域发展时空分异影响的评价方法,阐述了建立这种方法所要解决的关键科学问题,以及实现这一方法的具体步骤,并以我国近50年来GDP总量、人均GDP、第一产业产值和第二产业产值的时空分布为研究对象,初步分析自然地理格局对我国区域发展时空分异的影响。实证研究表明,“边际贡献率”能够定量表征自然地理格局对区域发展时空分异的影响程度及其变化,可以作为评价自然地理格局对区域发展时空分异影响的有效工具,量化与反演区域发展时空分异的驱动机制。

The regional disparity of development has always been one of the topics given higher priority in the fields of physical geography and economic geography. Even so, how to quantitatively assess the impacts of physio-geographical pattern （PGP） on the regional development disparity has been ignored for a long time. In this paper, taking the partial coefficients of determination calculated from marginal contribution rate equation as an index which indicated the marginal effects of physio-geographical pattern on the spatio-temporal differentiation, we adopted a quantitative method to assess the impacts mentioned above. The paper concretely enunciated the key scientific issues for the establishment of such method and the technical steps. Regarding the GDP, per capita GDP, primary industrial output value and secondary industrial output value were taken as the study objects, using the evaluation methods built by the researchers, we initially analyzed the impacts of physio-geographical pattern on spatio-temporal differentiation of regional development in China in recent 50 years, and explained its change at different development stages. The results show that the spatio-temporal differentiation in China is closely related to the physiogeographical pattern and the agricultural production could still achieve more outputs by breaking through the constrains of physio-geographical conditions. Our studies also show that the RMC can be a good tool to quantitatively assess the impact of PGP on the spatiotemporal differentiation of regional development.