湖北省耕地面积变化影响因素的通径分析

The Path Analysis and its Application Study on Correlation Research of Cultivated Land Change in Hubei Province

本文在介绍通径分析原理的基础上,采用该原理对1978～2002年湖北省耕地面积变化的11个影响因子进行了实证研究,力图剖析各影响因子对耕地面积的直接影响及其间接影响关系。结果显示,农业结构调整、市场化和粮食安全的因素对耕地的直接影响作用明显,而固定资产投资、城市化、耕地利用的比较利益和人口因素的间接作用也不能忽视。结果意味着和耕地面积相关系数大的影响因子不一定是直接作用最大的因子,而直接作用小的影响因子的间接作用也可能比较大,可见耕地保护必须考虑各种影响因素,采取综合的措施。

On the basis of introducing the principal of the path analysis, the paper analyzes positively the influencing factors of cultivated land change from the year of 1978-2002 in Hubei Province, and the relation between the influencing factors and cultivated land change are studied by the means of path analysis method. The result shows that the construct rearrangement of agriculture, grain security and market mechanism are the main factors deciding the cultivated land change, meanwhile, the impacts of investment, urbanization, the benefit gap between the different utility ways and population are also obvious. The result means that the direct influence of driving forces are not great while its indirect influence by other factors are significant, or vice versa.