2008年北京奥运会放射风险识别与评价研究

Study on identification and assessment of radiation risk in Beijing Olympic Game in 2008

目的识别和评价2008年北京奥运会放射风险,为控制放射风险、保证奥运会顺利进行提供科学的依据。方法依据国家有关标准、法规和条例,采用文献综述、专家咨询和经验分析的方法,参考AS/NZS4360∶1999风险评价指数矩阵,结合本底资料和现场调查进行系统的研究。结果北京拥有核反应堆6座,放射源1万余个(含存贮的废源)、放射工作单位1428个以及11000余名放射工作人员,每年进出北京的放射性货包30～100余万件;近10年本地区放射事故发生概率平均为1件/a,其中放射源丢失/被盗事故占67%,超剂量照射事故占33%,其他事故(如运输)占11%;放射风险按其严重性可分为事故性风险和潜在性风险,对人体产生的健康危害包括确定性效应和随机性效应;初步确定出核恐怖、核事故与放射事故是放射风险防控的重点,13类放射风险中放射源丢失/被盗为极严重的风险。结论北京地区放射风险因素复杂、风险控制的难度大,制订针对性的放射风险防控措施以保证2008年北京奥运会的顺利进行是非常必要的。

Objective To identify and assess radiation risk in Beijing Olympic Game in 2008 ,so as to provide scientific data for controlling radiation risk and guaranteeing the Olympic Game. Methods According to the relevant national standards, codes and byelaws, several methods including literature review, consultation from experts and experience analysis were adopted to carry out the systematic research work on the basis of referring the universal exponential matrix （ AS/NZS 4360： 1999） and integrating both background data and investigation on-site. Results It was reported that there were 6 nuclear reactors, over 10 000 radioactive sources （ including useless radioactive sources ）, 1 428 radiation work units and almost 11 000 radiation workers in Beijing, and about 0.3 - 1 million packages of radioactive materials came in or went out of Beijing annually. According to some statistics, the probability of local radiation accidents was one time per year, 67% of which resulted from radioactive sources lost/stolen, 33% from exposure to high radiation field and 11% from other factors such as abnormal transportation of radioactive materials. All of these radiation risks could be classified as accidental risks or potential risks in terms of their seriousness. Either determinate effect or stochastic effect which induced radiation health injury could be brought by the radiation risk. Furthermore, it was shown that we should pay more attention on nuclear terrorism, nuclear accident, radiation accident, as well as the accidents of radioactive sources lost/stolen which were the most serious one among 13 kinds of radiation risks. Conclusion It is necessary to take several protective measures to prevent any radiation accidents from happening during Beijing Olympic Game in 2008, because of complicated radiation factors and great difficulties in controlling radiation risks of Beijing.