我国书号调控政策探析——以图书种数与平均印数的比较为视角

On Chinese ISBN Control Policy: By Comparing the Number of Book Titles and the Average Print-run

本文用时间序列回归分析法分析了我国图书市场1981至2005年的发展特点,预测了未来的发展趋势,并进一步探讨了现行书号调控政策与我国图书市场发展趋势的关系。从模型分析可知,我国的图书市场呈现出图书种数逐年增加和平均每种图书印数逐年下降的发展趋势,图书市场的发展要求与书号总量调控政策之间存在着冲突关系。本文建议出版行政部门完善书号调控政策。

This paper aims at analyzing the characteristics of the Chinese publishing industry between 1981 and 2005 and calculating the future trend by applying the method of time sequence analysis. The relationship between the current ISBN control policy and thedevelopment trend of the publishing industry has been further studied. It has been observed through analysis of the model that the domestic publishing industry has been characterized by the annual increase in the total number of book rifles and the annual decrease in the average print-run during the past two decades. It is obvious that there exists the conflicting relationship between the demand of the industry and the ISBN control policy. Reorientation of the ISBN policy by the publishing administration has been suggested at the end of this paper.