中国货币供应、通货膨胀及经济增长关系实证研究

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Money Supply,Inflation and Economic Growth in China

采用协整与方差分解的方法对中国货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长的关系进行实证研究发现,通货膨胀与经济增长在短期和长期中作用关系相反,但都具有回归自然水平趋势,货币供应对通货膨胀和经济增长的影响具有滞后效应,长期内货币非中性,而通货膨胀和经济增长并不影响货币供应。一方面,应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率;另一方面,偏紧货币政策的滞后效应可能导致经济紧缩应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率,因此应谨慎调控宏观经济政策,以避免金融风险。

Utilizing co-integration and variance decomposition approach to analyze the relationship on money supply, inflation and economic growth.. It finds out that inflation rate and economic growth rate have contrary relationship in the short term and long term, but they trend to regress to natural level. The money supply has lag effect on inflation rate and economic growth rate. In a long run, money is exogenous without neutrality.