基于太湖数字流域系统的水质模型参数灵敏度分析

Sensitivity Analysis for Parameters of Water Quality Model Based on Digital Valley System of Taihu Basin

太湖流域水资源综合规划系统是一个覆盖全流域的,包括污染负荷模型、河网湖泊相耦合的水量水质模型的数字流域系统。该系统的水质模型参数众多,描述了整个太湖流域水体物理、化学和生物过程。其取值正确与否将直接影响到所选用的模型模拟水质变量在水体中演化特征好坏。通过灵敏度分析得出:①参数变化率在40%之内,水质浓度变化率在30%之内;②降解参数较释放参数灵敏;③5个等效释放参数敏感次序为:Sp、Sn、Sc、Sb、Stn;④5个等效降解参数敏感次序为:Kb、Kn、Kp、Kc、Ktn。

The integrated water resource plan system of Tailiu Basin is a digital system over the basin, which included pollution load model and the water quality model coupling basin and the lake. Paramters of water quality model of this system are too many that it is difficult to calibrate and validate the model., Whether they can get true value decide whether they can describe the evolvement character well.Three conclusions were got from the sensitivity analysis： ①Ranges of water conentration change is under 30% when the change rate of the parameter is under 40% ;②Degradative parameters is more semifive than release parameters; ③The probable sensitive sequence of 5 release parameters is Sp,Sn,Sc,Sb and Sm ;④The probable sensitive sequence of degradative parameters is Kb, Kn, Kp, Kc and Ktn .