相似的未来与未来的相似——对相似性原理运用于社会预测的思考

Similar Future and Future Similarity——Reflections on the application of Similarity Principle in Social Forecasting

天地万物间的事物虽各不相同,但总有相似之处。因此人们利用这种事物之间的相似性,通过已知事物的历史和现状,来推断其他事物的“相似的未来”。这种推断,在自然领域曾经屡试不爽,但是在社会领域,虽然社会历史有时会有“惊人的相似”,但就总体而言,“未来的相似”却大打折扣,因为社会历史不会简单的重复。那么,相似性原理能否应用于社会预测?如果能够,它会有哪些局限性?这就是本文所要探讨的问题。

Among the various phenomena in the universe, there must be some similarities whereby people may predicate the similar future of the different phenomena based on their past and their present. However, such predications have always failed in the fields of natural science. Although there can be astounding similarities in social history .in the fields of social science, ＂future similarity＂ is only relative in general, for history can not be simply repeated. This paper attempts to discuss the questions on whether the Similarity Principle can be applied in social forecasting and on what restrictions this principle may have if it could really be functional.