石化生产装置安全现状模糊综合评价方法研究

Study on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Safety State of Petrochemical Production Installations

根据石油化工生产装置安全评价存在的模糊性和随机性的特点,在建立涵盖安全管理、工艺过程、作业环境、人员素质、生产设备和安全教育等一级指标的安全现状综合评价指标体系的基础上,运用模糊数学综合评判理论,采用基于信息论中熵概念计算指标权重的方法,提出了安全现状二级模糊综合评价方法。在组织专家对评价指标打分和确定模糊等级的基础上,应用该方法对某顺丁橡胶生产装置安全现状进行了综合评价,得出其安全状况为“较好”;并分析了指标体系中一级指标的状况,为制定安全对策措施提供了指导。该方法对于提高石油化工生产装置安全现状综合评价的客观性和准确性具有理论意义和实用价值。

In view of the existing fuzziness and randomness in the safety comprehensive evaluation for petrochemical production installations, an index system for the comprehensive evaluation of safety state, which comprises the first-class indices such as safety management, process, work environment, staff quality, production equipment, safety education, was put forward, and then a two-stage fuzzy assessment model for the evaluation of safety state of petrochemical production installations was established by applying the theory of fuzzy mathematics. In this model, the concept of entropy in information theory was also used so as to obtain the objective weight of each index and avoid subjective effect. On the basis of the scores and fuzzy grades of each evaluation index given by experts, a safety state comprehensive evaluation on the production installation of the Cisl ,4 Polybutadiene Rubber was carried out through applying this model, result shows the safety state for this installation is ＂the better＂. Finally, safety state of all first-class indices was analyzed so as to provide guidance for constituting safety countermeasures and safeguards. This method is of great theoretic significance and practical use in improving the objectivity and accurateness of the safety state evaluation for petrochemical production installations.